****************************************************************************************************************
�� 103 �� �絤���η�ʪ���ϥ��ߥʡ� �Τ����餻
��������11�� 15��(��) ���� 9:30
�졡�ꡧ�㲹������ ������Ʋ
ȯɽ�ԡ���¼ ���� (������ǥ�ֺ� D2)
�ꡡ�ܡ�Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in a 20-member ensemble simulation
ȯɽ�ԡ����� ľ�� (������ǥ�ֺ� D3)
�ꡡ�ܡ���ʬŪ�˳�ɹ��ʤ��줿����ˤ�������ή�ο��ͼ¸�
****************************************************************************************************************
Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in a 20-member ensemble simulation (��¼ ����) ȯɽ�� :
A 20-member simulation has been conducted with the CCSR/NIES atmospheric GCM(AGCM) to investigate the time-space characteristics of the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations(AO and AAO, respectively). Each of the 20 AGCM integrations is forced by the identical global SST and sea ice history observed for 1959-1998, and differs only in the initial conditions. Our analysis focuses on the boreal winter season. AO and AAO appear as the first EOF modes of the ensemble-mean variability and resemble very much their observed counterparts. In the Northern Hemisphere, the ensemble mean reproduces reasonably well the quasi-decadal oscillation that was particularly pronounced in the AO time series for the recent three decades. In the Southern Hemisphere, the ensemble-mean AAO time series is correlated with the equatorial Pacific ENSO. Recent empirical studies raise a question of whether the AO is a true mode of climate variability or an artifact of EOF analysis. At issue is the correlation among AO's three centers of action. Our analysis shows that variability in these three centers of action is highly correlated with in the ensemble mean, indicating that the AO is indeed a SST-forced response. The correlation for the ensemble mean is particularly larger than it in all but one ensemble members in Pacific, suggesting that the formation of the spatial pattern of the AO is strengthed to give SST-forcing which is influenced significantly in Pacific.
��ʬŪ�˳�ɹ��ʤ��줿����ˤ�������ή�ο��ͼ¸� (���� ľ��) ȯɽ�� :
��ʬŪ�˳�ɹ��ʤ��줿����Ǥϡ��絤�������Ѥ������ȡ�ɹ�Τ����ΰ� �Ȥʤ��ΰ�dz�ɹ������®�٤��ۤʤ뤿�ᡢ��ʿ��������Ѱ��������ϥե�� ����������ɽ�ؤ˲ä�롣���κݤ���������ή�ϡ���ɹ��ʬ�۹�¤���ư®�� �ˤ�äƤ��ι�¤���ۤʤ뤳�Ȥ�ͽ�ۤ���롣�ܸ���Ǥϡ����ſ尵 3������ �ǥ���Ѥ��ƿ��ͼ¸���Ԥ���������ή�����ΰ㤤�ˤĤ���Ĵ�٤Ƥ��롣 ����ϡ����ϥե�å�����ä����ΰ�ο�ʿ����������Ѥ������ͼ¸��β��� ��̤�ȯɽ���롣 ���ϥե�å�����ä���������ΰ��Ⱦ�¤� R����ǥ��ΰ�ο����� H �� ����ȡ�R/H=1 �ˤ��ơ���ή�������ۤʤäƤ��뤳�Ȥ��狼�ä����ޤ��� R ���礭���ۤɷ���������̩�ٿ��̩�٤��Ť��ʤ뤳�Ȥ����μ���¸��� ��ä��Τ��Ƥ��뤬������μ¸��Ǥϡ�R/H<1 �λ����������줿��̩�ٿ�� ̩�٤����μ���¸���������줿̩�٤Υ��������§�Ȱ��פ��ʤ��ä���
-----
Ϣ����