****************************************************************************************************************

$BBh(B 56 $B2s(B $BBg5$3$MN7wJ*M}7O%;%_%J!<(B $B$N$*$7$i$;(B

$BF|!!;~!'(B1998$BG/(B 11$B7n(B 26$BF|(B($BLZ(B) $B8aA0(B 9:30 $B!A(B 12:00
$B>l!!=j!'(B$BDc292J3X8&5f=j(B 2F $BBg9V5A<<(B

$BH/I=$B:YED<"5#(B ($B6K0hBg5$3$MN3X9V:B(B DC3)
$BBj!!L\!'(B$BKLB@J?MN$NBg5$>l$ND9<~4|JQF0$KBP$9$k3$MN$N1~Ez(B

$BH/I=$BA}ED(B $BNIHA(B ($B5$8u%b%G%j%s%09V:B(B DC1)
$BBj!!L\!'(B$BKLB@J?MN(Bdecadal$B?e29?6F0$K$*$1$k!"(Bcurl$B&S(B=0$B%i%$%sJQF0$N8z2L(B

****************************************************************************************************************

$BKLB@J?MN$NBg5$>l$ND9<~4|JQF0$KBP$9$k3$MN$N1~Ez(B ($B:YED<"5#(B) $BH/I=MW;]!'(B

  1976-77 $B$*$h$S(B 88-89 $B$K$+$1$F!"KLB@J?MN$NBg5$>l$NJQF0$,8+$i$l!"$=$l(B 
 $B$KH<$&$h$&$K(BSST$B$K$b$=$NJQF0$,8=$l$F$$$k$3$H$ONI$/CN$i$l$F$$$k$,!"$=$N(B 
 $BMM$JD9<~4|JQF0$N(B trigger $B$,2?$+$O$^$?J,$+$C$F$$$J$$!#$3$NMM$JD9<~4|$N(B 
 $BJQF0$K$O!"3$MN$,=EMW$JLr3d$r2L$?$7$F$$$k2DG=@-$,$"$k!#$=$l$r2rL@$9$k$?(B 
 $B$a$N8&5f$OB?$/9T$o$l$F$$$k$,!"3$MN$+$iBg5$$X$N(Bfeedback$B$K$H$C$F=EMW$K$J(B 
 $B$k$H;W$o$l$k3$MN$N0!I=AX0J?<$K$D$$$FD4$Y$?8&5f$O$=$l$[$IB?$/$J$$!#3$MN(B 
 $BFbIt$ND94|$K$o$?$k4QB,$,Hs>o$K>/$J$$$N$bM}M3$N#1$D$G$"$k!#(B 
  $B$=$3$GK\8&5f$O!"3$MNBg=[4D%b%G%k$rMQ$$$F!"8=l$NJQF0$H$7$F(B 
 monthly mean $B$N(B NCEP$B:F2r@O%G!<%?$r(B forcing $B$H$7$FM?$($?$H$-$N3$MN$N1~(B 
 $BEz$rD4$Y$k!#$?$@$7(B forcing $B$K$O!"LdBj$r4JC1$K$9$k$?$a$K!":#2s$OFC$KIw(B 
 $B1~NO$H1vJ,!J(BP-E:$B9_?e(B-$B>xH/NL!K$=$l$>$l$K$D$$$F$NJQF0$r%b%G%k$N6-3&>r7o(B 
 $B$H$7$FM?$(!"(B1958$BG/$+$i(B87$BG/$^$G$N(B 30 $BG/4V$N%b%G%k$N7k2L$rMQ$$$?!#(B 
 $B!&Iw1~NO$NJQF0$N$_$r9MN8$7$?%b%G%k$N7k2L!'(B 
 $B?e29(B anomaly $B$r8+$k$H!"4QB,7k2L$+$i$N!"(B1976$B$+$i(B77$BG/$N5$8u%7%U%H$KH<$&(B 
 $B9uD,B3N.IU6a!&CfItB@J?MN$H!"KLJF1h4_$H$,0[Id9f$GJQF0$9$k%Q%?!<%s$KHs>o(B 
 $B$K6a$$J,I[$,8=$l$?!#$3$l$i(B 3$B$D$N(B $BNN0h$N?e29(B anomaly $B$N7A@.2aDx$O0[$J$k(B 
 $B$H9M$($i$l$k$,!"KLB@J?MNA4BN$N%Q%?!<%s$N7A@.$KIw1~NO$NJQF0$N8z2L$,=EMW(B 
 $B$JLr3d$r2L$?$7$F$$$k$3$H$,9M$($i$l$k!#(B 
 $B!&Iw1~NO!\1vJ,JQF0$r9MN8$7$?%b%G%k$N7k2L!'(B 
 $B:G6a1vJ,J,I[$NJQF0$K$D$$$F$N%G!<%?2r@O$b9T$o$l$O$8$a$F$$$k!#1vJ,$O?e29(B 
 $B$H0[$J$j!">/$J$/$H$b0!G.BS=[4DFb$G$ONO3XE*$J8z2L$O>.$5$$$,!"D9<~4|JQF0(B 
 $B$N;XI8$H$7$F$O=EMW$JMWAG$H9M$($i$l$k!#$=$3$G!"3$MN$N1vJ,J,I[$K8z$$$F$/(B 
 $B$kBg5$>l$N(B P-E $BJQF0$rD4$Y!"$=$l$K$h$C$F7A@.$5$l$k1vJ,(B anomaly $B$NEAGE$r(B 
 $BD4$Y$?!#(BP-E anomaly $B$O(B $BD9<~4|JQF0$K4X$7$F(B SST anomaly $B$NJQF0$H$[$\F1MM(B 
 $B$N;~4VE*$J%Q%?!<%s$,8+$i$l!"JQF0$NCf?4$OKLB@J?MNCfIt$G$"$k$3$H$,$o$+$C(B 
 $B$?!#$=$7$F1vJ,$N%7%0%J%k$O!"$[$\EyL)EYLL$K$=$C$F0!G.BS=[4DFb$KD@$_9~$s(B 
 $B$G$$$/MM;R$,8+$i$l!"1vJ,$rDI@W$9$k$3$H$GBg5$>l$ND9<~4|JQF0$NEAGE$rD4$Y(B 
 $B$i$l$k$3$H$,<(:6$5$l$?!#(B 

$BKLB@J?MN(Bdecadal$B?e29?6F0$K$*$1$k!"(Bcurl$B&S(B=0$B%i%$%sJQF0$N8z2L(B ($BA}ED(B $BNIHA(B) $BH/I=MW;]!'(B

  1980$BG/Be$N8eH>$+$iKLB@J?MN$N3$LL?e29>l!J(BSST$B!K$J$I$K$D$$$F!"D94|JQF0$K(B 
 $B4X$9$k>\$7$$2r@O$,9T$o$l!"(Bdecadal$B%9%1!<%k$NJQF0$,(B $BB8:_$9$k$3$H$,L@$i$+(B 
 $B$K$5$l$?!#(BSST$B$K$D$$$F$O!"(B1976$BG/0J9_!"B@J?MNCf1{It(B $B$NBJ1_>u$NNN0h$GDc2<(B 
 $B$7!"KLJF1h4_$NNN0h$G>e>:$7$?$3$H$,8+$$$@$5$l$F$$$k!#(B  
  $B$3$N(Bdecadal$B?e29JQF0$r0z$-5/$3$9%a%+%K%:%`$K$D$$$F$O!":#$^$GMM!9$JDs0F(B 
 $B$,$J$5$l$F$-$?!#$=$NB?$/$O!"(B1976$BG/0J9_!"(BPNA$B%Q%?!<%s$N6/2=$KH<$C$FJP@>(B 
 $BIw$,6/2=$5$l!"%(%/%^%sM"Aw$dG.(Bflux$B$NA}Bg$K$h$C$FB@J?MNCf1{It$N29EYDc2<(B 
 $B$,@8$8$?$H9M$($F$$$k!#(B  
  $B$?$@!"(BPNA$B%Q%?!<%s$N6/2=$O(Bcurl$B&S(B=0$B%i%$%s$NFn2<$r$b$?$i$7$F$*$j!"$3$l$,(B 
 decadal$B?6F0$K4sM?$7$F$$$k2DG=@-$b==J,$K9M$($i$l$k!#$h$C$F!"$3$N%a%+%K(B 
 $B%:%`$N1F6A$rD4$Y$k$3$H$r9M$($?!#(B 
  
  $BK\8&5f$K$*$$$F$O(B2$Be2

-----
$BO"Mm@h(B

$B?eED(B $B85B@(B $B!wKL3$F;Bg3XBg3X1!CO5e4D6-2J3X8&5f2J(B
$BBg5$3$MN7w4D6-2J3X@l96Bg=[4DNO3X9V:B(B
mail-to:mizuta@ees.hokudai.ac.jp / Tel: 011-706-2359