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第367回 大気海洋物理学・気候力学セミナー のおしらせ

日　時：1月19日 (木) 10:30 - 12:00
Date ：Thu, 19 Jan. 10:30 - 12:00
場所：低温科学研究所　3階　講堂
Place ：Institute of Low Temperature Science, 3F, Auditorium

発表者：Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad (JSPS外国人特別研究員)
Speaker：Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad (JSPS外国人特別研究員)
題目：A Review of the Sensitivity of ENSO to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warmingbr>­
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A Review of the Sensitivity of ENSO to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warming
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad (JSPS外国人特別研究員)
発表要旨：

        Understanding the influence of volcanism on ENSO and associated climatic
    impacts is of great scientific and social importance. Although many
    studies on the volcano–ENSO nexus are available, a thorough review of
    ENSO sensitivity to explosive eruptions is still missing. Therefore,
    this study aims to provide an in-depth assessment of the ENSO response
    to volcanism. Most past studies suggest an emerging consensus in models,
    with the vast majority showing an El Niño-like SST response during the
    eruption year and a La Niña-like response a few years later. RCP8.5-
    based climate model projections also suggest strong El Niño conditions
    and significant monsoonal rainfall reduction following strong tropical
    volcanism. However, some studies involving climate reconstructions and
    model simulations still raise concerns about the ENSO–volcano link and
    suggest a weak ENSO response to volcanism. This happens because the ENSO
    response to volcanism seems very sensitive to reconstruction methods,
    ENSO preconditioning, eruption timing, position, and amplitude. We
    noticed that some response mechanisms are still unclear, for instance,
    how the tropical volcanic forcing with nearly uniform radiative cooling
    projects onto ENSO when coincidental ENSO events are underway. Moreover,
    there are very less observational and proxy records for assessing the
    extratropical volcanism impact on ENSO. Nevertheless, model-based
    studies suggest that Northern (Southern) Hemispheric extratropical
    eruptions may lead to an El Niño (La Niña)-like response. It is further
    noticed that the origin of post-eruption winter warming is still elusive;
     however, recent findings suggest that the large-scale circulation
    changes concurrently occurring during volcanism are the potential source
    of high-latitude winter warming. Existing uncertainties in the simulated
    ENSO response to volcanism could be reduced by considering a
    synchronized modeling approach with large ensembles.

    

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